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taken from http://revsoc.org/archives/4701

The value of shares

Khimkinskaya action on July 28, for all its shortcomings was, forgive me for the stamp, a milestone in the development of the Russian Anti-Fascist, and the autonomist and environmental movements. Strictly speaking, the anti-fascist, self and environmental - are the three different movements, but between them there are no clear boundaries, they strongly overlap with each other, precisely at the intersection of these movements formed the most active and decisive element. Yes, and the problems they often have shared. First of all it concerns the attitudes of the authorities.No one element or eccentric (the Centre for the fight against extremism), even under the threat of impalement not be able to intelligibly explain the difference between environmentalists and autonomy, or between autonomy and anti-fascists, they do not understand it, and realize they do not want to have it all same extremists, as the American colonists that the Seminoles that the Apaches, Comanches that were simply Redskins, who must be wet to the land is not occupied. Since this article deals primarily with the problem of relations with the authorities, it makes sense in this not share these movements, and consider them as one, call it A-movement. So, Khimki event showed that this is A-movement has reached a new level.Nothing like this was not in the early nineties, when the resistance of the Nazis did not go beyond individual disparate occasional skirmishes, and in the environmental movement dominated by the idea of nonviolence, nor in the late nineties, when the anti-fascist actions amounted to a brawl involving a group on the strength of a few dozen people, and members of environmental stocks hit all and sundry, nor even in the middle of zero, when a raid on a camp near Angarsk was, albeit, the most challenging, yet quite typical episode.Khimkinskaya such action as it turned out, became possible only now. She has contributed a number of accidents (part of fascists in the attack on the camp of the defenders of the forest, stupid cops, etc.), and its very might be considered merely fortuitous success if it is not preceded by a number of shares, much to her to give in, but still comparable with it. This march with overlapping street two hundred people protesting against the outrage Cop, is a protest march, held after Markelov and Baburova ended a hassle with the cops in the subway, and finally, a fight with the cops on the anniversary of the murder - in the latter case, participants was even greater than in Khimki, but their actions were defensive in nature, is important, however, that as a result of these actions people managed to get the cops release two dozen protesters arrested.Amid all this Khimkinskaya action seems not as the Ostankino tower in an open field, as well as the Ai-Petri in the mountains of the Crimea or Goverla among the Carpathians.

Probably anyone who knows Russian realities it is clear that the president's decision to postpone construction of Khimki is not due to the petition filed by the legalists, and fears that if people ignore the problem completely lost faith in the "legitimate" methods and will look to raid members, and themselves they can repeat something like that.Of course, here and nature has helped to: fires, crop failure, livestock slaughtered due to burning pastures - all this and so fraught with social explosion, knowingly hurried to police reform, and in this situation, additional problems to the authorities Well, it is not necessary - and so do not know, will there be enough in which case the forces for "soothing" the people, so it is better to postpone this mess from the construction site to better times.Especially because it's coming not to abolish, but only a temporary postponement. And yet, whatever you say, what did not explain, and victory there. This apparent success in motion did not exist.

But right now, it was after this success would be the most stupid and worst relax, rest on our laurels and forget about the fact that every medal has a reverse side, the new rate means the new challenges to the decision which we must be prepared.In this case we are talking about serious issues, forget about which is not only foolish but also dangerous.

What's the problem?

There is a rule: the network is not afraid of small fish and large. She is afraid of fish medium-sized fish that are already too big to slip between the rope net, but still too small in order to discharge the same rope just break.In this small fish for the fisherman is not dangerous. For him, the big sharks are dangerous. Of course, small fry, and may eventually grow to gigantic proportions. But for this it must first grow to a size medium, that is, to those under which the network would be dangerous to her. This is what happened with A-movement. It is no longer the elusive Joe, who still has not caught anybody, because nobody needs him, but it's still not that Injun Joe, which was not touched, because nobody dares to touch.

In any hostile movement authorities, has reached "medium size", there are only two ways.Either it will be crushed by the authorities, large, or at least most of the activists will be arrested, emigrated, will go into private life - in short, retires, new people will not appear, or appear too small to offset the loss, as a result of the movement will again be marginalized, whether it will finish off the power then eventually leave, or as elusive Joe - is in this case has the details. Either it will have time to recruit a critical mass and become so strong that no repression he will no longer be afraid, because if that change will be killed and arrested immediately come to new staff, either because it is rich and can in which case the rescue of all their activists, using the corruption of the court and protection for some reason it still is in this case again is not important.And another thing is important. Before A-movement, too, there are only two ways. Which of them is going to go?

What is the solution?

Of course, I personally would really like to see the movement went on the second path. But if everyone on Earth depended only on my will on earth would have already started the global communist revolution.What are the chances of traffic on this very second way? That may contribute to the desired course of events, or hinder it?

Good chance of success of the movement gives an extreme expansion of almost complete collapse of power structures. Perhaps the danger of social explosion would divert power from the A-movement, perhaps, on the contrary, the authority decides that no protests, and generally beyond the control of any movement should not be Advizhenie and should be destroyed. Away from sin - in any case, authorities are presently only capable of something to grab the first available lighted activists that they are, strictly speaking, do.The steps are pretty stupid, considering that overexposed are not necessarily the most dangerous for the authorities or the most knowledgeable of other road users.

Unfortunately, this plus the almost entirely offset by an almost complete inability and sometimes unwillingness to comply with conspiracy, failure to understand that the authorities can, albeit with a squeak, but still adjust his work to fight traffic, and that when it happens, it's too late rebuild, adapting to new conditions - this must be done now, without waiting for roast pheasant.The problem is for A movement is particularly acute, and yet because it, unlike Makhnovists or Wahhabis, can not provide yourself unlimited replenishment of losses, and hence it can only grow if you will reduce your losses to a minimum.

Fortunately, the understanding of all this is gradually increasing and there are some changes for the better, but unfortunately, all these processes are too slow, anyway, is much slower than we would like.The struggle between the authorities and the A-movement - this is a contest between two turtles in advance. Win that of turtles, which was the first able to overcome sing turtle slow.

What few people thought

There is another danger that the vast majority of traffic does not even suspect. A movement is replenished mainly by young people. Very seldom that a man like Elijah of Murom, about thirty years of sitting on the stove and then suddenly it was moved, or that he was forty years has evolved from a fascist National Bolshevik and Trotskyist or in autonomy.Hence the main reserve movements are those who Wait a ten, fifteen, at most - twenty years. Those who Wait a twenty, born in the eighty-ninth or the nineties, when the birth rate has been on the rise. But even those who Wait a seventeen were born at the end of the ninety-second or the beginning of the ninety-third, when due to a sharp drop in living standards as sharply and fertility has fallen. Life rose in price - not a woman giving birth. Since the end of the ninety-second demographic is a terrible failure, stretching about ten years - only the beginning of this century, the birth rate in Russia was not that high, but at least not as low as in the nineties.Not by accident today spoke on the extension of military service - is not that the recruits became more mowing, and that soon they just will not. Sharply decreases the number of pupils in schools, and power, using it, close the school. But this means that the drops and the number of reserve for A-movement. And since it is impossible completely to avoid losses, such a reduction in reserve means for the movement, if not reduction in the number, then in any case, the impossibility of rapid growth.That is, the impossibility of the second path.

Reserve movements may be young migrants. Those who come to Russia in search of a better life, or has already arrived with their parents or older brothers. But to do that these people have to decide that A-movement they need it closer to them than their fraternities or the movement of Islamic fundamentalists. Who will convince them of this? Who at least tell them about what does and what achieves A-movement, or even that it exists at all? Not yet answered these questions, the rapid growth of the movement can only dream of.

To summarize

To summarize.Before A-movement faces two challenges: to learn to work effectively in a conspiracy, and to do it before the authorities begin their repression, and to go beyond the Russian and Russian-speaking, and possibly Russia (ie, have Russian citizenship) contingent. If the movement can solve them, it will become widespread. If not, it is doomed to returnenie to marginality.