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This material does not express the views of members of Autonomous Action. Moreover, some statements are disputed. However, the article is written by a publicist, who is very close to our positions. Recent events (attacks on cops in Primorye, Perm, finally, in Kyrgyzstan) force us to pay close attention to the processes taking place here and now before our eyes.

1. 1. The main result of the short coastal Guerrilla: observed mass of the population responded positively to the actions of the guerrillas, as evidenced by the cops and the public opinion polls. The people of almost immaterial whether it is right or even a simple criminals: support is due to the hatred of cops.To the right ideas of detachment, if they were (right voiced them in an Internet, accompanied by streams of lies and a surge of false information) the people reacted rather indifferently (at least there was no evidence of positive reaction, except property, the right blogging).
2. Events in Primorye perceived in society as far more significant than the much more extensive guerrilla warfare mujahedin guerrillas in the Caucasus, since the latter is not perceived by the Russian society as part of Russia (it indicates the coming of ethno-regional breakdown of Russia).
3. Authorities acted clumsily, accompanying their actions rafting lies: from the right of nations to the Wahhabi version of literature, allegedly found in the caches, and to confusion with names and photographs of criminals (Muromtsev). This strengthens the society in the thought that the authorities can not be trusted. Authorities introduced a special position in the region and threatens to shoot curfew violators, that is, behaves as an occupier.Alleged acquaintances of suspected guerrillas beaten or even killed in the police. Together, higher lifts a wave of hatred for authority and cops.
4. That's what happens, may well be called the elements of civil war, including the use of not only police, but also the army, and the use of repression against the civilian population. As a result, insurgents have become national heroes in the eyes of a significant part of society.
5. There are four iconic events of recent months: a relatively mild anarchist guerrilla warfare in Moscow (arson or broken glass in the police stations on May 1), workers' revolt in Mezhdurechensk, March of Dissent, suddenly brought together 2,000 people instead of the usual in the recent past, Moscow 100-200 Finally, guerrilla warfare in Primorye. In all these actions involved only a handful of men who express their anger exclusively for illegal form - from illegal demonstrations and overlapping railway, to guerrilla warfare. But on the other hand, every attack on the power is massive support and further raises anti-state sentiments.Events like the marathon, when everyone seemed to pass on the baton to another.
6. The reasons for widespread discontent: people tired of perpetual and unelected government, provincial poverty, exacerbated by the global economic crisis, total corruption, extreme social inequality (including, but not least, the gap in living standards between the capital and the regions), Cop chaos, inability to protect their interests are legal methods, stopping the mouths of all dissent."Who muzzle - unleashes" - an old truth. Russia - Belarus does not, it is too large and too poorly controllable, there's too many social conflicts that power could correct situation simply plugging mouths.
7. Internet is increasingly becoming an alternative media. Fewer and fewer people watching the controlled power, degrading TV, all the above surging waves of anger, which previously had not been so clearly articulated (in dointernetnom society). Power loses control over the dissemination of information and on ways of expression of society.Internet becomes the catalyst for the revolutionary process (not, however, exclude the impact of events in Greek, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand).
8. Guerrilla warfare in the Primorye sharpened the issue of violence and the adequacy of its application. There is widespread public sympathy for the guerrillas. But sympathy - one, care of guerrillas - more. Nevertheless, coastal rebels became heroes in the eyes of many, and they certainly appear imitators.
9. Makhnovshchina was one of the most effective forms of anarchist actions.Calls to non-violence on the part of the anarchists and their critique of guerrilla positions of reformism, regulations and legalism, hypocritical - the same people condemn the guerrilla and praise Makhnovshchina and arch-violent Spanish anarchists Durruti. The left reformists condemned by history. The era in which workers might think that they can seek to improve their status under the law through legal trade unions and the courts ended with the arrests of trade union-legalists like Urusova and a rebellion in Mezhdurechensk.
10. Guerrilla warfare can be an effective way to fight.Chinese Mao rebels defeated the Kuomintang, Vietnamese, Algerian, Afghan and Lebanese guerrillas defeated the great modern centralized armies - American, French, Soviet and Israeli, Iran polupartizanskimi methods to clean off their territory by Iraqi troops during the Iran-Iraq war. Red Brigades have created one of the largest military organization of the urban proletariat in the 20m century (up to 25 thousand people, with mass support for enterprises of Turin, Milan and othersindustrial centers), and waged war against the government, trade unions and the Communist Party legalistic about 20 years. But guerrilla warfare is possible only if at least two factors. First, if the mass of practical support to the rebels, whose ranks constantly replenished with new people from the popular masses. Secondly, if the rebels idea of martyrdom, willingness to sacrifice himself, to devote his life and death struggle for the golden age of equality and fraternity. This attitude was in the first half of the 20th anarchists century.It is similar to the worldview of the People's Freedom fighters, Iranian guerrillas Fedayeen 1970s, rebel heretics of the Middle Ages. But carbon monoxide, subculture, punk character Modern anarchism (the main thing - to get stoned, ugarat here and now and what will happen next - of little importance), and far many of its themes (LGTB, protection of animals) of people in conflict with the possibility of an effective guerrilla (not ruled that the right, with their strange religious sects, similar problems arise).
11. Not all power derives from the barrel of his rifle.In Modern Russia is not a large-scale guerrilla, because the people in it is not ready yet, but high prices for oil and gas regime will receive hundreds of billions of dollars and use them to stop the protesters from the mouth (while in power are not only stick, but carrots). But grass-roots discontent of the population will not go away, it will accumulate and be expressed in different forms. They will describe the elements of direct action, they will be radical and illegal: from unauthorized non-violent marches to episodes of armed struggle.However, not necessarily just the armed struggle would lead to regime change - the tsarist monarchy collapsed in the massive demonstrations and strikes, and also because in February 1917, the troops refused to shoot at people.
12. Perhaps the country is going to rebel, although this largely depends on the cost of oil and the development of the crisis. Riot - not a social revolution and the popular masses resistance can be channeled to different forces - from anarchy to the liberals and the right. But the riots lead to the accumulation of experience of social resistancesto implement fully, immune, and resistance of the social organism and may be a step towards a revolution of workers' councils, to direct democracy and a classless society.

Source: http://shraibman.livejournal.com/500365.html