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Started a revolution?

Revolution - is not any unrest and coups, and social and political conflicts that lead to changes in the social structure of the country. Hence my skepticism of some, when the overthrow of presidents in Tunisia and Egypt called "revolution." "The title of" the revolution must still be earned. In order for the event could be recognized revolution, leaders of the movement and reaching the masses behind them should at least formulate a program of revolutionary change. The "free" election - the apparent lack of requirement for the peripheral countries of the Third World.In such countries, the "free" elections in its pure form is problematic to speak at all, but "unclean" as they passed under Mubarak, and even the Muslim Brotherhood "is sometimes participated in them. Nothing yet foretells that after Mubarak's government comes to power, which can not only solve, but even solve the deeper, affecting the lives of millions of corruption and poverty.

Unrest in the East occur from time to time, and nobody had the idea to call a revolution, for example, events in the same Tunis in 1984, when the angry masses of crushed polstolitsy.Case remedied - you can plug the throat of small socio-economic concessions, cash handouts, change some officials (and then take this back through taxes and inflation). And the rebellion will crumble like sand under the sun. It is - still a sandstorm, not revolution.

Given that this time the waves used operationally in the fight against the ruling group (in 80-ies. Tunisia waited 3 years after the rebellion to replace the president, and now have done it once), yet we are not dealing with the revolutionary wave, and with wave of mass popular demonstrations, the constructive contents of which - the "orange revolution", where both words are in quotation marks.If the sand is again driven away under the sun, the Tunisian and Egyptian "revolution" will be simulacra, mythical shell with no real revolutionary content.

These different revolution

But this - not all. Current events can become a real revolution fuse, though not yet have any in Tunisia or Egypt. Disappointment of the population in the "Orange Revolution" could lead to a new explosion that could be regarded as a revolution already without the quotes.The current situation in Egypt and Tunisia, while rather refers to a revolutionary situation, the revolutionary crisis, and can later be hailed as the beginning of the revolution only if followed by truly revolutionary sequel. And yet here are two possibilities: sand-orange and green.

The "orange" revolution, where the second word without quotation marks, where there really is possible to speak of a revolution - similar revolyushen Glory "in 1688in England - a typical "leading up" revolution. It can be called "Orange" in honor of William of Orange, who came to power in a coup in 1688 Why "leading up" rather than the more typical "interformational? The fact that some of the revolution, such as the English Revolution the XVII century. Can not solve their problems "Go." They penetrate into the existing social system "gap", but for further development is needed respite, and then another socio-political upheaval, which "carries" the results of the previous revolution, says the standards of a new social system.If this problem is successfully solved, there comes the next formational cycle, with new revolutions. And the first of which as a rule - "early". They are still scheduled future tasks, but can not secure them. Relationship is not sufficiently ripe, not stronger. It was only later, when the ruling classes "do not understand a hint, it's time classic interformational revolutions.

More information about the typology of revolutions, see, for example: A.Shubin. The first Russian revolution in the historical origin http://magazines.russ.ru/nz/2005/6/sh3.html

Sadat stalemate and deadlock Nasser

The results of which will "bring" the Egyptian revolution, if it does not stop at this stage? Let me remind you - that Mubarak's regime - a direct continuation of the regime of Sadat's policy of "infitah" ("openness"), that is putting at the mercy of global capitalism, the rejection of "Arab socialism", held before Nasser's state modernization.The failure of Nasser's policies led to the fact that Sadat and Mubarak made a retreat, anticipating the later collapse of the sotssistemy. Today it has become clear that this path eventually led to an acute social crisis, to make the Cairo and other cities in a social bomb. Tourists interested in the life of the country beyond the tourist routes, were appalled at the possibility of Cairo life of millions of people - among the garbage heaps, without permanent jobs and income. Not is no indication that Mr ElBaradei and other liberal leaders have a recipe for solving the problems of these people.So I do not see any prospects of the revolution, "leading up" to standards infitah Western-style capitalism. "Purest capitalism" there will not work. In this way can only be changed "flea", a corrupt oligarchy to another. And that - not a revolution.

Why draft Nasser collapsed before the socialist system as a whole? Because in the words of "Arab socialism" was the main word "Arab". "Socialism" Nasser was a means for solving the main problem - pan-Arab affairs - uniting all Arabs into a single superpower.Minimum program - with its capital at Cairo or Damascus. The program maximum - in Jerusalem. Draft Nasser was closely linked with the need to defeat Israel. But Nasser and his allies in 1967 were defeated, and plans for the United Arab Republic from the Atlantic to the Gulf are gone, scattered like a dry desert sand, but have not been forgotten altogether. Heirs of this era were the authors ofmentary regimes from Libya to Iraq, but they were an obstacle to the Arab cause by dividing the Arabs boundaries of their states.

Bomb for Gaddafi

Even Qadhafi, continued to use revolutionary rhetoric, have long rested in the oil complacency began to carry out liberal reforms and not brought to its logical end of the national modernization of his country - which now auknulos influence of tribal leaders, and hatred for the regime of the young and disenfranchised, "aliens" who work in Libya Arabs from other countries (Egyptians, Palestinians, Tunisians and others).These people, along with foreign specialists serve the industrial complex, creating part of the national product of the country. If such social forces are the bomb under the building Jamahiriya, there is something wrong with that Jamahiriya.

Revolt against al-Qadhafi is a protest not against modernization, the authors believe, consider these events "counterrevolution." While the revolt would have occurred in the 70-ies. during the period of modernization policies in Libya. But no - it has happened now, after a "stagnant" 80-90-ies.and commencing in 2003, liberalization. This revolt is not against the revolution, but against the system, which arose as a result of stopping the modernization project, as a result of oil "stagnation" and the related social decay. However, the prospect of the overthrow of the Qadhafi not happy - the enemies of Gaddafi in Libya do not restart the upgrade, but only more determined to continue cautiously begun Gaddafi liberalization (of which if they win Gaddafi could now abandon). Given the role of traditional leaders in the events in case of defeat Gaddafi Libya may have to wait and direct response.But only on condition that Libya will provide myself. And this is unlikely to succeed.

Who picks up the Arab cause?

Thus, the Egyptian infitah, and, like him, the commercialization of public policy from Syria to Libya had been a retreat from the task of national unification of Arabs and Arab modernization.

Today we see how both rose throughout the region, divided not only borders but also the different social conditions. Today's worries are dozens of reasons, and one general - an Arab "common cause".In Tunisia, up "our brothers", and therefore the rise of "we" - from Morocco to Baghdad. Sand rose to a storm from the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf. This means that the pan-Arab cause was still relevant, still moves people dream of total power, which unites enormous human and raw material resources for the region out of poverty combined forces.

But the old Arab nationalists can not lead this process because they - the heirs of those regimes, against which there is a struggle.

This does not mean that the new Nasser, in principle, can not appear.Sand-colored military uniform are still in vogue. New Nasser could be that the military, who will take the "reset" the problem of Arab modernization and unification of the region into a superpower.

But this task can take on not only the war with Napoleon's plans, backed by an enthusiastic crowd at the central square. In terms of discrediting the old regime, deceased at the rotting alone and waiting for a social explosion, the Arab business can take over the Islamists.

Only lazy people do not even discussed the threat of Islamic reaction.But after the Islamic revolution in Iran originated model combining kontrmodern with the continuation of industrial modernization. The victory of radical Islam may lead to a dull response, as in Afghanistan, and to a particular upgrade, mobilizing the masses to solve the pressing problems of social inequality and poverty. Islamists have everything that allows them to take over the pan-Arab cause - inter-governmental structure, a willingness to challenge the compradorbourgeoisie, social programs, hatred of Israel and the dream of Al-Aqsa.

1830, 1848, 1905 ...

Under what conditions does the Arab revolution could go the way of "leading up" to a more profound social revolution? By the revolution, similar to the French in 1848 and even deeper in 1905 in Russia, "to make" reform the 60-ies., Decided interformational problem and moved on - to the side in 1917.

I already wrote about the conditions, when the Egyptian Social sand can meet in real revolutionary storm: http://shubinav.livejournal.com/30958.html if very briefly - to appear organs grassroots organization and build on the ideological pole with a constructive strategy for social change .A classic example: in 1848 in France all too began with the struggle against bourgeois middle-class oligarchy (leading up problem), and "raskachegarilos" to acute class conflict, an early form of the proletarian revolution. But in France in 1848 has received wide spread of socialist ideas, the Revolution quickly pushed forward the program of social reforms, even if imperfect.The events in the Middle East this yet.

There's the working class does not play an independent political role, strikes in Egypt did not put forward a more radical demands than the opposition in general. Do not put forward a coherent economic program, an alternative to liberalism. No, Egypt has not yet reached the level of the French in 1848, and especially Russia, 1905. But there are some grounds for seeing an opportunity to further deepen the process.

The beginning of a long journey

Events in Tunisia are very interesting just the fact that the advanced model of all subsequent waves: the conflict Bazaar (Small and Medium Business) and admitted to power the business oligarchy.This - the problems of France 1830-1848 years. Only if Tunisia and Egypt will be able to make this leading up the revolution (and this result has not yet been achieved - the basis of the regime survived), in the event of further development of the revolutionary process, "escalating" to stay just a step to "early" revolution of the next cycle, which is usually associated with proletariat and socialism.And then a huge role will play a subjective factor, because the next step can not be done without the dissemination of relevant ideas. Ideas - perhaps the most important legacy of the earlier revolutions.

But the influence of secular left-wing ideas in the Middle East events is minimal, and their popularity just prevents the experience of previous left-wing reforms. Blanquists, Louis Blanc, Proudhon, and left the Jacobins were popular, because behind them there was no such demonstration of rebirth as carriers of leftist ideas in the East. And here, of course, a huge share of the responsibility lies with the Arab Socialists, Gaddafi and Algerian leaders who had plenty of time to implement his left project.The result - the same market and the poor masses who hate the ruling oligarchy, which brings together government and business interests, the same liberalization. As a result, the East was in a historic trap, which provides handicap Islamists. But it is - just the beginning of the historic party. In 2011 showed that social problems have accumulated so much that under the old system, these will not be removed.Spring charged, but could unwind very long. Should not expect a quick denouement of this story.

AV Shubin

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